Uttar Pradesh Election Results 2024: U.P.’s western region proved to be the wind vane of the State

  A Samajwadi Party supporter carries portraits of Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi as he celebrates his party’s lead during the counting of votes in Lucknow on Tuesday. | Photo Credit: PTI

In the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s reduced score in Uttar Pradesh, the Western and adjoining central parts of the State played the role of a wind vane. The BJP was aware of the change in the political climate. That is why it got on board Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) to reduce the losses in the region affected by farmers’ agitation and protests against the treatment meted out to the women wrestlers.

Despite the RLD’s muscle and the BSP staying out of the Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc, out of the 26 seats, the NDA has won only 13 seats. In 2019, its tally was 18.

In the first round, the INDIA bloc won six of the eight seats. The BJP secured only the Pilibhit seat, while Nagina went to Chandra Shekhar Azad of the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram). In 2019, the Opposition alliance of Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and RLD won five of these seats.

The biggest upset came from Muzaffarnagar, where, in the clash between two Jat powerhouses, SP’s Harendra Malik defeated Union Minister Sanjeev Balyan in a close contest.

RLD sources said while the party won both the seats it contested — Bijnor and Baghpat — and has minimised the BJP’s losses in other seats, the result could spiral problems for the alliance in the region. Mr. Balyan’s supporters have accused the RLD of not going full tilt to ensure the victory of the BJP’s Jat face, who rose to prominence after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots and defeated the then RLD chief Ajit Singh in 2019.

Also Read: Election results 2024: NDA leads in majority seats; markets nosedive | Top 10 developments

Mr. Balyan was also facing the wrath of the Thakurs in the region, who felt that he was undercutting the influence of the party’s Rajput strongman Sangeet Som, also a product of the Muzaffarnagar riots. Thakur leaders had accused the BJP of taking their community for granted and promoting Jats and Gurjars who joined the party just ahead of the elections. This discontent in the BJP cadre about the last-minute entrants getting a disproportionate share of the political pie was felt across the State. Mr. Balyan’s task was made all the more difficult by the BSP, which fielded a Prajapati candidate who secured around 1.40 lakh votes.

The results also reflect that the SP’s initial flip-flops in candidate selection and dissonance between the party leadership and senior leader Azam Khan over the Rampur and Moradabad picks did not cost the party, as the Muslim vote remained steadfast with the SP across the State.

In the second round, the BJP swept all eight seats. Danish Ali Khan, who won the Amroha seat in 2019 on a BSP ticket, contested on the Congress symbol this time but lost to BJP’s Kanwar Singh Tanwar by a small margin after a see-saw battle. Here, the BSP’s Muslim Rajput candidate spoilt the chances of Mr. Khan by securing more than 1.60 lakh votes.

An important takeaway from the round was that the victory margins of the BJP in seats where its candidates were facing anti-incumbency has come down drastically. For instance, in Aligarh, BJP’s Satish Gautam won the seat for the third time by only around 15,000 votes. In 2019, the margin was around 2.25 lakh votes.

Similarly, in Meerut, where Arun Govil was brought in to tide over the anti-incumbency of the outgoing candidate and create a Hindutva wave in the region managed to secure the seat by around 10,000 votes after a hard-fought battle in which he trailed for the greater part of the day.

It reflected in the third round, fought in the SP bastion, where the BJP has lost six of the 10 seats. In 2019, when Shivpal Yadav’s party was also in the fray, the BJP had won eight seats. It was the round in which Akhilesh Yadav’s call to save democracy and reservation reached the grassroots, and the BJP could not find a counter to slay the doubts that took root in the minds of the voters in the Mandal belt. On April 17, in a joint press conference with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in Ghaziabad, Mr. Yadav said, “The winds of change that would start from Ghaziabad will end in Ghazipur.” The results show that he understood the sentiments of the State better than PM Modi.

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